Gainesville, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

291
FXUS62 KJAX 042258
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
658 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Daily Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms. Highest coverage over
  north central Florida again Sunday.

  Storm Hazards: Lightning, Gusty Winds, & Localized Flooding

- High Risk for Rip Currents Today Northeast FL Beaches. Moderate Risk
  this Weekend Southeast GA

- Hot Again Sunday: Daily Peak Heat Indices: 105-109F. Building
  heat next week potential heat advisory conditions

&&

.UPDATE...

Stratiform showers with occasional residual anvil lightning remain
primarily confined to Flagler County this evening, with this
activity expected to dissipate after sundown. A few isolated
post-sea breeze showers will also persist across the First Coast
and should gradually weaken and dissipate through the evening.
Farther north, a few additional showers may briefly develop
across interior southeast Georgia as the east coast sea breeze
continues its westward progression toward the Waycross area.

Most convection will diminish rapidly after sunset with the
loss of daytime heating. However, a few lingering light showers
may persist along the westward-moving east coast sea breeze
boundary before it eventually dissipates. Considerable cloud
cover will linger through midnight before clearing skies
gradually develop after midnight.

Toward daybreak, strengthening southwesterly flow may allow a
few showers to move into portions of western Marion and Alachua
Counties. Overnight lows will fall into the mid 70s inland, with
upper 70s expected along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

Main Highlights This Period:

- Daily Max Heat Indices 105-110, Heat Advisory Potential
- Daily Afternoon & Early Evening Storms
- Elevated Rip Current Risk Sunday

A pattern shift to southwest steering flow begins Sunday and
continues Monday as the mid level ridge axis extends across south-
central FL. This will bring a dominant west coast sea breeze
convective regime across the local area and focus the higher
afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances across areas east of
Highway 301 and toward the coast each day. Southwest flow off of the
Gulf will bring a few morning showers then late morning thunderstorm
chances inland by about noon across the Suwannee River Valley, with
more scattered to numerous showers and storms blossoming from west
to east across inland areas into the afternoon. Sea breeze and
boundary mergers will converge near and west of Highway 301 and
toward the Atlantic coast during the late afternoon with storms
tracking back toward the local coast into the evening each day.
Convection fades inland each evening with localized radiation fog
where recent rainfall occurs. With warm mid levels and weak steering
flow < 10 kts for most locations, the main storm hazards will be
localized, briefly flooding rainfall and wet downburst winds of
around 40 mph due to heavy precipitation loading. Better storm
chances on Sunday, with lower chances Monday as some drier mid/upper
level air invades from the west-southwest.

Temperature moderate to above average with highs in the mid to
upper 90s, even the low/mid 90s at the beaches with a delayed east
coast sea breeze start compared to recent days. This building heat
combined with elevated dew pts will created heat index values in the
105-110 deg range each day, near to just above Heat Advisory
criteria for zones east of Highway 301 and toward the coast. Muggy
overnight lows range in the 70s inland to near 80 coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Above Average Temperatures with High Heat Index Values
- Daily Thunderstorm Chances

Prevailing southwest steering flow continues through the week with
increasing moisture from the north across southeast GA mid-week
which will increase daily shower and thunderstorm coverage. At this
time daily rain chances range from 20-50%, with the higher afternoon
and evening chances toward the east coast. Evening storms press
offshore then showers resurrect near the Gulf Coast and shift inland
each morning.

With the upper ridge across FL and westerly flow, higher thicknesses
will continue above average temperatures with highs in the mid/upper
90s and daily heat index values 105-112 degF, reaching local Heat
Advisory criteria in some locations. At this time, the area of
greater heat risk appears to focus along the Highway 301 corridor
toward the Atlantic coast across northeast Florida, with "extreme
risk" highlighted at wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk Tue-Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Primary TSRA concerns this afternoon remains focused across
Northeast FL, generally west of the I-95 corridor. High confidence
of slow-moving +TSRA at KGNV between 19z-23z remains the most likely
with potential convective impacts possible at KVQQ and KJAX through
23z. Per usual, in the vicinity of +TSRA erratic wind gusts up to
30+ knots is possible.

Otherwise, no forecast augments made with the afternoon forecast.
Outside of convection, cloud bases around 4-5 kft are expected with
winds light winds from the WNW shifting east around 10 knots with
the Atlantic sea breeze.

This evening as convection settles, "blow back" showers from
residual TSRA may lead to -SHRA along the I-95 corridor through 03z.
Southwesterly winds will develop overnight and spark widely
scattered showers by 15z.

&&

.MARINE...


High pressure builds across central and south Florida this weekend
into early next week with a transition to a prolonged south to
southwest flow over the local waters through next week. This will
increase afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances over the local
waters. Nightly wind surges return with near exercise caution levels
developing by Sunday night.

Rip Currents:

High risk remains in effect, mainly due to the higher probability of
Rip Current incidents due to the heavy beach attendance for the
Independence Day holiday. Surf will be generally 1-3 feet with minor
swell which will generally diminish the occurrence of rips on a
widespread concern but typical areas near jetties, sandbars, inlets,
and piers will be favored for rip currents this afternoon.
Similarly, looks like a moderate to locally high risk for Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Sunday & Monday...
showers and isolated storms moving inland from the Gulf Coast
through late morning. The east coast sea breeze will develop and
drift inland toward the I-95 corridor mid to late afternoon. The
best chance of afternoon and evening storms each day will focus
between Highway 301 and the Atlantic coast. Dispersion will be
elevated across inland southeast GA and parts of the Osceola NF on
Monday. Daily heat index values will approach 105-110 deg. Afternoon
minimum humidity will continue above critical values.

Fog Potential and other remarks: Patchy inland fog each morning
around sunrise is possible, especially where rainfall recently
occurred. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing lightning,
torrential rainfall, and erratic wind gusts during the afternoon and
evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Satilla River at Atkinson will remain in Minor Flood through the
Sunday and is forecast to lower into action stage Sunday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  96  75  95 /  10  40  30  20
SSI  79  95  79  94 /   0  50  30  40
JAX  76  96  77  95 /  10  60  30  50
SGJ  77  94  77  94 /  10  40  20  50
GNV  75  93  74  93 /  30  40  10  40
OCF  75  92  75  92 /  30  40  20  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Risk for Rip Currents until 2 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$