Gainesville, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

907
FXUS62 KJAX 112330
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
730 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk of Rip Currents through the Weekend

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Continues. Dry & Warmer Through Next
Week. Elevated Wildfire Danger This Weekend

- Locally Dense Fog Early Sunday Morning

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Main Highlights Today and Tonight:

- High Risk of Rip Currents continues at NE FL/SE GE beaches

- Locally dense fog possible late tonight

Surface high pressure system remains centered just north of the area
around 1024 mb helping to maintain a northeast to east surface flow.
Rest of the afternoon, sfc winds expected to be near 10-15 mph with
a few higher gusts, mainly for the coastal areas. The onshore flow
also keeping the coastal high temps in the 70s while inland it will
be in the mid 80s. No meaningful rain chances given the subsidence
aloft and dry airmass with PWATs well below 1 inch. We did note a
convergence line extending from near SGJ to northeast into coastal
waters. This line looks pretty weak and not impressive at this time.

By this evening, the high pressure system will already be located off
the GA and SC coasts so the onshore flow will continue. Inland winds
will decouple late evening and overnight. Mostly clear or clear
skies along with the dry airmass and calming winds will allow lows
to fall to about 50 inland and near 60 at the coast. The pattern
will also support and favor locally dense fog toward sunrise. Also,
we nudged the low temps toward the NBM 25th and 10th percentiles
given the known NBM bias.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Dry and Warm through Monday
- Inland Late Night/Early Morning Fog

High pressure well north of the region will slowly scoot towards
northeast of the area through Monday, with a ridge of high pressure
holding firm with a general east to east/southeast flow over the
region. Dry and warm conditions continue, especially inland thanks
to the onshore flow continuing with just some scattered diurnal
clouds in addition to some higher thin clouds moving overhead by
Monday. Rip current risk will remain high at area beaches through
Sunday, which also could last into Monday. Highs in the mid to upper
80s will be expected inland west of about the I-95 corridor, with
mid 70s to low 80s closer to the coast. Lows in the 50s will be
common inland with low 60s closer to the coast. Patchy to areas of
fog will be expected inland as well where winds die down the most.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Temperatures trending to above normal during the upcoming week

High pressure will continue to dominate the weather for the region
for most if not all of the long term period. The high will start to
orient more due east of the region by mid to late week inducing more
of a southeast to southerly flow, which combined with building
ridging/subsidence aloft will maintain dry and increasingly warm
conditions daily. Unfortunately, this will remain unfavorable for
the ongoing drought conditions, and therefore elevated wildfire risk
is expected to continue as well.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the first 6 hours of the 00Z TAF
period with MVFR/IFR fog developing at most TAF sites through 13Z-
14Z. Light easterly winds will become variable as high pressure
remains over the area centerered across central and southern GA with
very light winds aloft and generally clear skies supporting fog
formation from the coast to GNV. Tempo restrictions for LIFR to
VLIFR conditions in place at JAX/CRG/VQQ 10-13Z. VFR levels resume
after 14Z with easterly winds and a few low level cumulus clouds 3.5-
4.0 kft bcomeing clear in the after noon with winds 6-10 knots
bumping up to around 10 knots at all sites.

&&

.MARINE...


High pressure ridging will be the prevailing feature through the
weekend into next week. Elevated seas today over the area waters,
mostly from east swells, will gradually subside through early next
week.

Rip Currents and Surf:

East swells and onshore flow this weekend will keep a high risk of
rip currents with rough surf of up to near 3-5 ft. Report from
Fernandina Beach lifeguard this morning indicated strong rips. NWPS
rip current probabilities are high, suggesting values above 80
percent for most of the area southeast GA and northeast FL beaches
this weekend. The highest values, above 90 percent, were indicated
for most of our northeast FL beaches. The elevated risk of rip
currents will persist the first few day of next week as well.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
- Patchy High Dispersions For Inland Northeast Fl Today
- Areas Of High Dispersions Inland Sunday And Monday
- Critically Low Humidity Inland This Weekend

Warm and dry pattern will persist through the rest of the weekend
and into early next week with a mostly onshore flow. This flow will
be more easterly today, becoming increasingly southeasterly over the
next several days. Lower level flow will be strong enough for
patchy/areas of high dispersions inland today and Sunday. In
addition, good mixing will result in minRH values less than 30%
today across the upper Suwannee Valley and southeast GA today, and
over far inland GA Sunday. These will trend upward for Monday
onward, though still hover in the low to mid 30s of percent inland.
Chances for rain will remain very low through at least mid week at
this time.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Fog developments are expected
during the overnight and early morning hours through at least the
next several days, with more dense developments possible over inland
areas and along the SE Georgia coast.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures at NE FL/SE GA climate sites:

April 13: JAX 92/2001, CRG 91/2001, GNV 93/1922, AMG 88/2001

April 14: JAX 90/2007, CRG 90/2023, GNV 91/2019, AMG 91/2007

April 15: JAX 90/2006, CRG 91/2001, GNV 92/1936, AMG 91/1954

April 16: JAX 90/1972, CRG 91/2011, GNV 90/1967, AMG 92/1967

April 17: JAX 93/1967, CRG 90/2006, GNV 90/1945, AMG 91/1967

April 18: JAX 94/1967, CRG 89/2018, GNV 91/1967, AMG 92/1967

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  52  85  56  86 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  60  75  64  76 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  55  82  59  83 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  61  78  62  79 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  54  85  56  87 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  55  85  58  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Sunday night for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Sunday night for GAZ154-166.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$