Gainesville, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

086
FXUS62 KJAX 062354
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
654 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Nightly Fog Potential through the Weekend for Parts of Southeast GA
and Northeast FL

- High Risk for Rip Currents NE FL Today

- Record High Temperatures Possible Inland through Tuesday

- Thunderstorm chances for portions of the area This Evening,
  Sunday, Monday and Thursday

- Extreme Drought has Overspread our Entire Area

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Main Highlights For Today:

- Areas of dense fog expected along the nearshore GA waters through
Saturday morning. This sea fog will move onshore later this evening
with fog expanding in coverage through Saturday morning.

- Isolated T-storms near the coast will push inland from the I-95
corridor and move inland with further development of widely
scattered T-storms into the late evening.

Currently, widely scattered showers and a T-storm along the east
coast sea breeze at 130 PM and will push inland while additional
convection will develop inland counties through the late afternoon
and evening. Coverage of precip will trend to scattered or about 30-
40 percent coverage. We can`t rule out a strong storm with hail and
gusty winds given aforementioned discussions about fairly cold temps
aloft yielding sizable CAPE values. Latest MLCAPE analysis shows
values up to 1700-2000 J/kg inland, a few hundred more than
yesterday, where the temps are in the mid 80s with dewpoints in the
mid to upper 60s. Convection will tend to congeal a bit more around
the I-75 corridor after 5 PM.

Max temps expected in the mid 80s inland, and we will have mid 70s
at the coast.

Have seen some sea fog along the GA coast (per webcams and
satellite imagery) and so we have expanded marine dense fog advisory
overnight. For tonight, another round of sea fog/fog will develop
again late tonight as a moist low level airmass and light SE winds
under partly cloudy skies trending mostly clear at times well after
sunset from leftover showers and storms fading by 10PM-midnight.
Lows will fall into the lower 60s near the coast and the mid 60s
inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Thunderstorm chances over most of the area Sunday
- Fog potential each night, which may become dense

The region will remain within the western periphery of Bermuda High
ridging through the short term period, with the main headlines being
very warm temperatures persisting with a southeasterly flow, as well
as chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms inland each
afternoon and evening, especially on Sunday. Fog potential will also
continue each morning with this regime persisting, mainly near the
coast and over southeast GA.

Saturday & Saturday Night: Slightly warmer and drier conditions
aloft Saturday will limit diurnal convection potential slightly,
with the best chances for an isolated shower being generally over
the southern St. Johns River Basin and southern I-75 corridor. High
temps will be overall quite similar to Friday, with widespread low
to mid 80s inland and mid to upper 70s near the immediate coast.
Areas of fog and low clouds spread inland for most of the area
Saturday Night with mild lows in the low 60s common.

Sunday & Sunday Night: A weakening frontal boundary approaches from
the northwest on Sunday, though will stall and essentially dissipate
through Sunday Night. Pre frontal moisture will continue to move
southeastward into the area during the day on Sunday, which will
return slightly higher coverage of showers and a few isolated
t`storms. The front will break down ridging a bit and induce more of
a southeast to southerly flow near the coast and southwesterly
inland, shifting the "corridor" of diurnal convective chances closer
to the Atlantic coast. That being said, most of the area will have
at least a slight chance of a shower, though the best chances
(around 25-30%) will be generally between I-75 and I-95 Sunday
Afternoon and Evening. More along shore and offshore flow will push
very warm temperatures in the mid to upper 80s closer to the coast
as well as inland, though still only in the upper 70s within a few
miles of the coast, especially the southeast GA coastline. Southwest
flow off the Gulf will result in the greatest fog potential being
over areas furthest west/southwest Sunday Night, with min temps in
the low 60s common across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Greatest chance for thunderstorms this period is on Thursday
- Nightly fog potential continues

Flow will remain more southwesterly Monday before Bermuda High
pressure ridging reinforces a bit Tuesday and into mid week, with
more of a southeasterly flow returning. A few showers or isolated
t`storms may affect interior southeast GA throughout the weak closer
to a weak/diffuse boundary to the north, but otherwise the start of
the long term period looks to remain dry for the vast majority of
the region. The next big "weather maker" is expected around the
Thursday time frame as an upper trough dips into the southeastern US
with complex surface low pressure likely to form near the Gulf Coast
and move across the region.

Temperatures trend mostly above climo for the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
A shower or storm may pass by GNV in the next hour. Otherwise, ESE
winds around 10 kts this evening decrease to 5 kts or less
overnight. Another round of fog/stratus will likely affect the TAF
sites tonight. Earliest development of fog and stratus expected at
SSI By 03z-06z due to the sea fog, then anticipate rest of the TAFs
having cig and/or vsby IFR/LIFR restrictions by 07z-10z. Conditions
improve by 14z Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...


Dense sea fog at times will lead to difficult navigation conditions
across the coastal waters tonight and Saturday morning. Prevailing
visibilities will generally be low, especially within about 20 NM
from the coast. Sea fog is likely to continue through the weekend as
warm, moist air is pushed across the water by southeast and south
winds. Otherwise, surface high pressure near Bermuda with the axis
westward into north central Florida, will remain fairly stationary
through Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will
develop across the waters Sunday into Monday.

Rip Currents: For today, breezy east and southeast winds of about
10G15kt coupled with nearly direct onshore swells (with periods of
10 seconds) to the coast will support a moderate to high risk of rip
currents at area beaches. Latest wave forecasts suggest very little
change in the sea/surf state so moderate to high risk may continue
into the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
- Low Dispersions Along The Coast Today
- Areas Of High Dispersions Inland Southeast Ga Sunday

High pressure will be the prevailing weather feature through the
weekend, featuring an onshore southeasterly flow as well as chances
for showers inland through this time frame. A weakening frontal
boundary will bring greater chances for showers and isolated
thunderstorms as well as patchy high dispersions by Sunday, though
this front will essentially dissipate by early next week. Conditions
then look dry for early to mid next week before a stronger frontal
system approaches around Thursday.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Nightly fog potential will continue
through the weekend and likely into next week as well. Slight
thunderstorm chances expected inland during the afternoon and
evening through Monday.

&&

.CLIMATE...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 88 DEGREES WAS SET AT GAINESVILLE FL
TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 87 DEGREES SET IN 1977.

Record High Temperatures:

March 7:
KGNV: 88/2023
KAMG: 86/1956

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 7:
KGNV: 66/1935

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  84  61  84 /  20  10  10  20
SSI  62  73  61  76 /  10   0  10  20
JAX  62  83  61  86 /  10  10  10  30
SGJ  64  78  61  81 /  10  10  10  20
GNV  63  86  61  87 /  30  20  10  30
OCF  64  87  62  86 /  40  20  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Risk for Rip Currents until 4 AM EST Saturday for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
GA...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for AMZ450.

&&

$$