Gainesville, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

343
FXUS62 KJAX 040723
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
323 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Critically Low Relative Humidity Values across Inland
  Southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley this Afternoon.

- Elevated Fire Danger Conditions Possible on Tuesday Afternoon
  at Inland Locations.

- Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at All Area Beaches.

- Near Record High Temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday.

- Breezy with Scattered Thunderstorms on Thursday Afternoon &
  Evening. Strong to Isolated Severe Storms Possible Across
  Southeast GA.

- Scattered Thunderstorms Possible from Friday through the
  Upcoming Weekend.

- Expansive, Historic Drought Conditions Continue for Most
  Areas.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Main Highlights This Period:

- Critically Low Relative Humidity Values Across Inland
  Southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley this Afternoon.

- Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at All Area Beaches.

Overnight surface analysis depicts high pressure (1021
millibars) situated along the southeast U.S. coast. Meanwhile,
a wavy frontal boundary remains stalled across the FL Keys and
northwestern Bahamas. Aloft...a subtle shortwave trough was
crossing our area, with this feature embedded within a mostly
zonal west-northwesterly flow pattern that prevails across the
eastern two-thirds of the nation. Latest GOES-East derived Total
Precipitable Water imagery indicates that a dry air mass
continues to advect into our region, with PWAT values around one
half inch or less across southeast GA and northeast FL, while
values of 0.5 - 0.75 inches were located across north central
FL. The aforementioned shortwave trough crossing our area was
creating isentropic lift / overrunning across central and south
FL to the north of stalled, wavy frontal boundary. This lift was
creating a deck of mostly mid level cloud cover for locations
along and south of Interstate 4 in central FL, with a few
stratocumulus clouds nosing into north central FL. Fair skies
otherwise prevail across our region, with decoupling winds at
most inland locations and a light onshore breeze prevailing
along the northeast FL coast. Temperatures at 07Z ranged from
the mid 40s across portions of inland southeast GA to the 50s
for inland locations elsewhere, except mid 60s for portions of
north central FL. 60s prevail at coastal locations, and
dewpoints ranged from the mid 40s across inland southeast GA to
the mid and upper 50s for coastal northeast FL as well as
portions of north central FL.

Shortwave troughing crossing our area early this morning will
quickly shift offshore before noon, with zonal westerly flow in
its wake becoming northwesterly overnight as ridging over
Mexico begins to expand over the Bay of Campeche (southwestern
Gulf). Meanwhile, high pressure situated along the southeastern
seaboard will shift eastward today, allowing low level flow to
shift from east- northeasterly this morning to east-
southeasterly by this evening. This veering flow will slowly
erode the dry air mass that is in place across our area by this
evening, with PWATs climbing to near 1 inch this afternoon
across north central FL.

Breezy onshore winds associated with the Atlantic sea breeze
boundary will push marine cumulus and stratocumulus onshore this
afternoon from around St. Augustine southward, with increasing
clouds expected through around sunset across north central FL
and southern portions of the Suwannee Valley as the Atlantic sea
breeze boundary propels inland. A few showers or sprinkles may
develop from this cumulus and stratocumulus deck just south of
our area this morning through the afternoon, but dry conditions
will otherwise prevail for our region through tonight. Plenty of
sunshine and the initially very dry air mass in place at inland
locations will allow highs to rebound to the low and mid 80s
for locations west of the I- 95 corridor this afternoon, while
breezy onshore winds keep coastal highs in the upper 70s.
Southeasterly breezes will be slow to subside tonight at coastal
locations, keeping lows mostly in the low to mid 60s, while
decoupling winds at inland locations allow lows to fall into the
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Dry Weather with Warming Temperatures.

- Elevated Fire Danger Conditions Possible on Tuesday and
  Wednesday Afternoons at Inland Locations.

- Moderate Rip Current Risk at Area Beaches.

Predominantly dry weather conditions will persist through
Tuesday and Wednesday while high pressure over the region
moves off towards the east with the prevailing flow shifting to
become more out of the west by the end of the period as a cold
front boundary presses in towards the forecast area from out of
the northwest. Temperatures will warm through midweek with daily
high temps rising from out of the mid to upper 80s on Tuesday up
into the lower to mid 90s by Wednesday. Overnight low
temperatures will similarly warm from out of the lower 60s up
into the mid to upper 60s by midweek.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Main Highlights This Period:

- Hot & Breezy on Thursday with an Elevated Fire Danger
  Possible.

- Showers and Thunderstorm Chances Return on Thursday Afternoon
  and Evening, Especially for Southeast GA, where Strong to
  Isolated Severe Storms May Be Possible.

- Slightly Cooler Late this Week and During the Upcoming Weekend
  with Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms, Especially for
  Northeast and North Central FL.

High pressure will shift further south and east of the region on
Wednesday as the next front approaches from the north Wednesday
Night, likely moving across southeast GA Thursday and Thursday
Night before slowing progress near or south of northeast FL
Counties on Friday with weakening also likely. High pressure
tries to build in from the north behind the front, but as of now
it looks fairly weak and ridging doesn`t look to make it much
further than southern GA, and therefore at least slight chances
for showers and t`storms are likely to continue across northeast
FL late week where the warmest temps and best moisture remains
in place closer to wherever the frontal boundary ultimately sets
up/lingers. Temperatures will be above climo for Wednesday and
Thursday area-wide, dropping overall closer to normal for Friday
and into the start of next week with more of a north/south
gradient likely.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...

Periods of IFR visibilities are expected overnight at VQQ.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail at the regional
terminals. Ceilings of 3,500 - 4,500 feet may develop at SGJ
after 18Z as marine stratocumulus pushes onshore, but
probabilities for MVFR ceilings remain low at this time.
Northeasterly surface winds will remain sustained at 5-10 knots
through around 15Z at SGJ, followed by speeds increasing to
10-15 knots before 16Z, with winds shifting to easterly after
19Z. Variable winds sustained around 5 knots are expected
overnight at SSI, followed by winds becoming easterly at 5- 10
knots by 16Z, with speeds increasing to 10-15 knots before 21Z
as winds shift to southeasterly. Northeasterly surface winds
around 5 knots will otherwise develop at the inland terminals
before 15Z, with speeds increasing to around 10 knots before 20Z
as winds shift to easterly. Southeasterly surface winds of 5-10
knots are expected to then prevail at the regional terminals
after 00Z Tuesday, with speeds gradually diminishing towards the
end of this TAF period at the inland terminals.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure centered over the southeastern states will shift
offshore this afternoon as weak low pressure situated along a
stationary frontal boundary moves eastward and away from
Bahamas. Breezy east to southeasterly winds are expected during
the afternoon and evening hours today and again on Tuesday.
Caution level speeds will be possible on Wednesday afternoon and
evening, well in advance of a cold front that will be entering
the southeastern states. Winds will shift to southerly on
Wednesday night and then southwesterly on Thursday as the
frontal boundary slowly approaches our local waters from the
northwest. Showers and thunderstorms will likely accompany this
frontal passage on Thursday afternoon and evening, with strong
storms possible across the Georgia waters. Breezy northwesterly
winds are expected in the wake of this frontal passage on
Thursday night, followed by winds shifting to northerly on
Friday morning and then northeasterly by Friday afternoon as the
frontal boundary likely stalls over the Florida peninsula.
Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible
from Friday through the upcoming weekend as a wave of low
pressure develops along the stalled frontal boundary that should
be positioned near the northeast Florida waters.

Rip Currents:

Breezy onshore winds will combine with a lingering east-
northeasterly ocean swell to maintain a higher end moderate risk
at area beaches today. The ocean swell will gradually fade by
midweek, but persistently breezy southeasterly winds will keep a
moderate risk in place at area beaches through midweek. Gusty
southwesterly winds may reduce this risk on Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

- Critically Low Relative Humidity Values Across Inland
  Southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley this Afternoon


- Marginally High Daytime Dispersion Values this Afternoon
  Across North Central FL

- An Elevated Fire Danger and High Dispersions Inland Each
  Afternoon Tuesday Through Thursday

Dry weather is expected to prevail area-wide through Wednesday
as high pressure remains in control. With the drier airmass
behind the recent front, very good mixing inland each day
through Wednesday will result in minRH near critically low
values during the afternoon and evening, as well as an overall
increase in daytime dispersions each day. Flow will be generally
our of the north to northeast today to nearly variable but
still gusty over inland GA, becoming increasing more east to
southeasterly through Wednesday. The next frontal boundary to
affect the area will approach Wednesday Night, bring chances of
rain mainly for southeast GA on Thursday with lower chances
across northeast FL as the front weakens Thursday Night and into
Friday. Thunderstorms will also be possible with the front,
especially north of about the I-10 corridor.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy to areas of fog will be
possible at inland locations during the predawn and early
morning hours on Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures at NE FL/SE GA climate sites for:

Wed, May 6:
JAX: 96/2012
CRG: 96/2012
GNV: 96/1955
AMG: 95/2012

Thu, May 7:
JAX: 94/1977
CRG: 94/1977
GNV: 96/1955
AMG: 93/1962

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  81  53  85  62 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  77  64  79  69 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  82  56  85  64 /   0   0  10   0
SGJ  77  65  82  67 /   0  10  10   0
GNV  85  57  89  63 /   0  10  10   0
OCF  85  58  89  64 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$