Gainesville, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

007
FXUS62 KJAX 242349
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
749 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk for Rip Currents through Memorial Day

- Daily Mainly Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms. Today: Isolated
Strong to Severe Inland Areas. Primary Storm Hazards: Localized
Flooding & Gusty Winds. Slight Risk of Heavy Rainfall Event this
Weekend mainly over southeast GA

- Hot and Humid - Daily Heat Index 95- 105F through Friday

- Historic Drought & Elevated Wildfire Danger Continues

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Scattered thunderstorms capable of gusty winds and localized
flooding this evening for inland counties, west of I-95.

- High Risk of Rip Currents Continues at all area beaches this
afternoon.


Showers and storms are beginning to creep into the area, with
activity along the western counties of NE FL with the Gulf breeze
and activity along the coast with the Atlantic sea breeze. Activity
is expected to increase as the afternoon progresses and along the
breezes as they meet along the interior areas of NE FL and SE GA.
With a good amount of moisture aloft (Latest Satellite obs: PWATs
~1.8"), periods of heavy downpours will be possible, with slow
moving storms bringing the potential for localized flooding.
Additionally could also have a few of the stronger storms reach
severe levels with winds of 40-60mph and frequent lightning strikes.
Activity will begin to lessen during the early evenings as a few
lingering showers and storms will be present during the overnight
hours into Monday.

Highs, outside of showers and storms, will top out in the upper 80s
to lower 90s across the inland locations, with the mid 80s along
coastal locations. Overnight Lows in the 70s area-wide, with a few
locations in the upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
- Summer-like pattern continues
- Daily inland thunderstorms
- Heat index 95-100 degrees

Daily showers develop along both inland progressing east and west
coast sea breezes by late morning with further blossoming and
strengthening of showers and storms each afternoon and evening.
Expect better coverage and stronger intensity of storms Monday
especially across southeast GA late day where surface convergence,
deeper moisture and passing short wave trough energy coincides.
Lower coverage of storms expected across northeast FL with weaker
dynamics in place under more influence of the mid level ridge.
Tuesday, mid and upper level subsidence increases across coastal
areas and northeast Florida which will bring a decrease coverage of
showers/storms and focus the higher rain chances once again across
inland southeast GA. A few strong storms are possible near boundary
mergers each afternoon and evening, with isolated pulse severe
storms possible Monday afternoon across inland southeast GA. The
main storm hazards will be gusty wet downbursts of 40-60 mph and
localized, briefly flooding rainfall.

Due to more convection across southeast GA, daytime highs will trend
near to below climo in the mid to upper 80s with the hottest
temperatures focused across inland northeast FL where highs will
reach the lower 90s. Heat index values will range between 95 to 105
degrees. Overnight conditions will be muggy with lows in upper 60s
to mid 70s coast and localized fog/mist where recent heavy rainfall
occurred.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Thursday through Sunday...

- Daily Thunderstorm Chances
- Slight Risk of Heavy Rainfall Late Next Weekend

The 1000-500 mb mean layer Bermuda Ridge axis begins to shift
farther east and south of the local region with a transition to a
more unsettled, wetter southwest steering flow pattern into next
weekend. Above average precipitable water content is forecast to
range between 1.65 - 2 inches (average for early June is 1.4 to 1.5
inches). This general pattern indicates a dominant west coast sea
breeze regime Thu & Fri with higher afternoon and evening storm
coverage east of Highway 301 toward the Atlantic coast. Then, not a
classic diurnal pattern into next weekend with more widespread
periods of rainfall as the upper trough moves across the deep south
with upper level lift, a weak surface front, and daily sea breezes
interacting with deep layer moisture to bring periods of heavy
rainfall and a localized flooding rain risk where grounds may become
briefly saturated. The CPC US Week 2 Hazard Outlook does have much
of the FL peninsula and coastal SE GA flagged in a "Slight Risk" of
heavy rainfall. Still too far out for specific rainfall amounts, but
given the long term drought, rain over the next week will be
welcomed by most.

With increased cloud cover and storminess, high temperatures will
trend below average generally in the 80s with muggy lows in the 70s
to mid 60s for parts of inland SE GA early next week on the northern
side of the lingering front.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Showers and storms near GNV this evening will weaken and gradually
shift northeastward expected to pass in the vicinity of the JAX metro
sites and SSI between 02-07Z. Brief periods of low ceilings during
the overnight hours may bring impacts to SSI/VQQ, with lower
visibility possible. Breezy SE winds around 10kts develop again
Monday afternoon in the wake of the inland moving Atlantic sea
breeze. Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms may impact
the TAF sites between 18-00Z. Heavier downpours could lower
visibilities to MVFR/IFR.

&&

.MARINE...


Showers and storms will move into the coastal waters later this
evening and continuing into Monday morning. Influence of Bermuda
high pressure will continue a south to southeasterly winds over the
waters through the upcoming week. Isolated to scattered showers and
offshore thunderstorms expected on Memorial Day and Tuesday. Daily
afternoon and evening surges are expected with winds increasing to
exercise caution levels through midweek. Atlantic high pressure will
then shift southward around Thursday this week,increasing chances
for showers and thunderstorms across our area as prevailing winds
become southerly.

Rip Currents:

Due to breezy onshore winds this afternoon, and surf around 3-4
feet, there will be a High Risk at all area beaches through this
afternoon and evening. High risk is likely to continue into Monday
due the afternoon southeasterly wind surge.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
- Patchy High Dispersions Monday And Tuesday Ocala NF

Summer-like pattern continues over the next couple of days with
afternoon showers and storms forming along the inland progressing
Atlantic coast and Gulf coast sea breezes. The higher coverage of
storms will focus across inland southeast GA and the Suwannee River
Valley in the late afternoon and evening. Storms will fade after
sunset through  midnight with mostly dry conditions by daybreak and
some patchy fog where recent rainfall occurred. Minimum humidity
will remain above critical values. Gusty east to southeast winds
will trail the afternoon sea breeze as it pushes inland toward the
Highway 301 corridor each afternoon with peak sea breeze gusts near
25 mph. Localized high dispersions due to hot temperatures and
elevated transport winds across northeast Florida, especially near
the Ocala National Forest.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected
into early next week. Erratic winds during periods of thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  68  87  68  89 /  80  80  70  70
SSI  76  88  76  88 /  50  30  20  30
JAX  74  89  74  91 /  40  40  20  40
SGJ  76  89  76  90 /  20  20  10  20
GNV  72  92  73  93 /  60  50  60  30
OCF  73  91  72  91 /  60  40  50  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Monday night for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Monday night for GAZ154-166.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$